张洪, 魏娟, 胡俊, 铁岭. 一种新型的网络实际流量预测算法[J]. 微电子学与计算机, 2015, 32(10): 46-49. DOI: 10.19304/j.cnki.issn1000-7180.2015.10.010
引用本文: 张洪, 魏娟, 胡俊, 铁岭. 一种新型的网络实际流量预测算法[J]. 微电子学与计算机, 2015, 32(10): 46-49. DOI: 10.19304/j.cnki.issn1000-7180.2015.10.010
ZHANG Hong, WEI Juan, HU Jun, TIE Ling. A New Prediction Algorithm of Network Actual Traffic[J]. Microelectronics & Computer, 2015, 32(10): 46-49. DOI: 10.19304/j.cnki.issn1000-7180.2015.10.010
Citation: ZHANG Hong, WEI Juan, HU Jun, TIE Ling. A New Prediction Algorithm of Network Actual Traffic[J]. Microelectronics & Computer, 2015, 32(10): 46-49. DOI: 10.19304/j.cnki.issn1000-7180.2015.10.010

一种新型的网络实际流量预测算法

A New Prediction Algorithm of Network Actual Traffic

  • 摘要: 为了验证当前网络节点失效而产生的流量衰减问题,提出一种基于离散时间的新型网络实际流量预测算法(Prediction algorithm based on Discrete-Time for FARIMA model,PDF).该算法首先利用离散时间理论推导节点数据包的排队情况,计算出存在失效节点时流量平均对长的数学公式,并结合FARIMA模型建立预测方法.最后,通过数学仿真深入分析平均对长与服务率等影响因素之间的关系.仿真结果表明,PDF算法具有较好的适应性,与原始流量标准差为10.23.

     

    Abstract: In order to verify the network traffic decline because by node breakdown, this paper proposes a new type of prediction algorithm(Prediction algorithm based on Discrete-Time for FARIMA model,PDF). At first, the mathematic formula for queuing situation and average queue length in steady state is derived with queuing theory in this algorithm based on discrete time, and the prediction method is established by FARIMA Model. Then, a simulation was conducted to research on the relationships between average queue length and service rate. The result shows that it has good adaptability, and the standard deviation between prediction traffic and original traffic is 10.18.

     

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